{"id":18974,"date":"2020-05-11T16:57:47","date_gmt":"2020-05-11T14:57:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/grupobcc.com\/?p=18974"},"modified":"2020-05-11T17:00:18","modified_gmt":"2020-05-11T15:00:18","slug":"nassim-nicholas-taleb-the-pandemic-isnt-a-black-swan-but-a-portent-of-a-more-fragile-global-system","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/grupobcc.com\/en\/news\/nassim-nicholas-taleb-the-pandemic-isnt-a-black-swan-but-a-portent-of-a-more-fragile-global-system\/","title":{"rendered":"Nassim Nicholas Taleb: The Pandemic Isn\u2019t a Black Swan but a Portent of a More Fragile Global System"},"content":{"rendered":"

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We share with you a post published\u00a0in \u2018The New Yorker\u2019<\/span> in which you can learn more about our speaker Nassim Nicholas Taleb:\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n

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“Nassim Nicholas Taleb is \u201cirritated,\u201d he told Bloomberg Television on March 31st, whenever the coronavirus pandemic\u00a0is referred to as a \u201cblack swan,\u201d the term he coined for an unpredictable, rare, catastrophic event, in his best-selling 2007 book of that title. \u201cThe Black Swan\u201d was meant to explain why, in a networked world, we need to change business practices and social norms\u2014not, as he recently told me, to provide \u201ca clich\u00e9 for any bad thing that surprises us.\u201d Besides, the pandemic was wholly predictable\u2014he, like Bill Gates, Laurie Garrett, and others, had predicted it\u2014a white swan if ever there was one. \u201cWe issued our warning that, effectively, you should kill it in the egg,\u201d Taleb told Bloomberg. Governments \u201cdid not want to spend pennies in January; now they are going to spend trillions.\u201d<\/h4>\n

The warning that he referred to appeared in a January 26th paper that he co-authored with Joseph Norman and Yaneer Bar-Yam, when the virus was still mainly confined to China. The paper cautions that, owing to \u201cincreased connectivity,\u201d the spread will be \u201cnonlinear\u201d\u2014two key contributors to Taleb\u2019s anxiety. For statisticians, \u201cnonlinearity\u201d describes events very much like a pandemic: an output disproportionate to known inputs (the structure and growth of pathogens, say), owing to both unknown and unknowable inputs (their incubation periods in humans, or random mutations), or eccentric interaction among various inputs (wet markets and airplane travel), or exponential growth (from networked human contact), or all three. (…)”<\/h4>\n

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Read more: https:\/\/www.newyorker.com\/news\/daily-comment\/the-pandemic-isnt-a-black-swan-but-a-portent-of-a-more-fragile-global-system<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We share with you a post published\u00a0in \u2018The New Yorker\u2019 in which you can learn more about our speaker Nassim Nicholas Taleb:\u00a0 “Nassim Nicholas Taleb is \u201cirritated,\u201d he told Bloomberg Television on March 31st, whenever the coronavirus pandemic\u00a0is referred to as a \u201cblack swan,\u201d the term he coined for an unpredictable, rare, catastrophic event, in… Read more »<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":18975,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false},"categories":[48],"tags":[618,318],"yoast_head":"\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\t\n\t\n\n\n\n\n\t\n