Ian Bremmer

President, Eurasia Group

Expert on Global Politics & Risk Management and Best-Selling Author

Creator of Wall Street's first-ever global political risk index and the president of Eurasia Group, Ian Bremmer is a sought-after adviser on international risk management who reads the global political and economic landscape.

English
Economics and Political · Economy · Government and Politics · Strategy and Corporate Culture

Ian Bremmer is the founder and president of Eurasia Group, a global political risk research and consulting firm. His company provides financial, corporate and government clients with information and insight on how political developments move markets. Bremmer’s own analysis focuses on global macro political trends and emerging markets, which he defines as “those countries where politics matter at least as much as economics for market outcomes.”

Ian Bremmer provides strategies that help minimize both long- and short-term risk by taking into account both the political and economic factors that affect the global business environment. He created Wall Street’s first-ever global political risk index and has authored several best-selling books including The J Curve: A New Way to Understand Why Nations Rise and Fall (Simon & Schuster, 2006), The Fat Tail: The Power of Political Knowledge for Strategic Investing (Oxford University Press, 2009), The End of the Free Market: Who Wins the War Between States and Corporations? (Portfolio, 2010) and Every Nation for Itself: Winners and Losers in a G-ZERO World (Portfolio, 2012).

In his new book, Superpower: Three Choices for America’s Role in the World (Portfolio, 2015) Ian Bremmer calls for a complete rethink of America’s role in tomorrow’s world. In an increasingly volatile international environment, the question has never been more important. Bremmer explores three choices, each with its own benefits and drawbacks: Independent America, Moneyball America and Indispensable America.

Ian Bremmer is a foreign affairs columnist and editor at large for TIME magazine and a contributor to The Financial Times A-list. He has written hundreds of articles for publications including The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, The New York Times, Newsweek, Harvard Business Reviewand Foreign Affairs. He appears regularly on CNBC, Fox News, Bloomberg Television, National Public Radio, the BBC and other networks.

Conferences

Superpower: Three Choices for America's Role in the World

Global policy expert Ian Bremmer calls for a complete rethink of America’s role in tomorrow’s world. In an increasingly volatile international environment, the question has never been more important. Bremmer explores three choices, each with its own benefits and drawbacks:

- “Independent America” argues that it’s time for Washington to declare independence from the responsibility to solve everyone else’s problems. Instead, America should lead by example by investing in America’s enormous untapped potential;
-“Moneyball America” acknowledges that we can’t manage every international challenge but asserts that we must defend U.S. interests wherever they’re threatened. It looks beyond phony arguments about American exceptionalism with a clear-eyed assessment of U.S. strengths and limitations; and,
-“Indispensable America” insists that only Washington can promote the values on which global stability increasingly depends in our hyper-connected world. Turning inward would threaten America’s security and prosperity.

Every Nation for Itself: Winners and Losers in a G-ZERO World

At a time when so many challenges transcend borders, the need for international leadership has never been greater. Leaders have the leverage to coordinate multinational responses to transnational problems and the wealth and power to persuade other governments to take actions they wouldn’t otherwise take. They pick up the checks that others can’t afford and provide services no one else will pay for. But in years to come, there will be no global leadership, because there is now no single country or bloc of countries with the political and economic muscle to drive an international agenda. America is struggling to pay its bills, Europe is busy trying to save the eurozone, and emerging powers are wrestling with too many complex challenges at home to accept risks and burdens abroad. A world without leaders will undermine our ability over the next decade to keep the peace in Asia and the Middle East, to grow the global economy, to reverse the impact of climate change, to feed growing populations, and to protect the most basic of all necessities—air, food, and water. Its effects will be felt in every region of the world, even in cyberspace.

Ian Bremmer, an expert on international politics and its impact on global markets, will detail the following:

-The impact of a world without leadership on international politics and the global economy -Next challenges facing the United States, Europe and China
-Asia’s evolving balance of power
-The future of the Middle East
-Winners and losers in a world without leaders
-Crisis points- from food security to cyberspace
-The global balance of power most likely to emerge from a G-Zero world

The End of the Free Market: Who Wins the War Between States and Corporations?

A generation after communism’s collapse, the future of free market capitalism isn't what it used to be. Public wealth, public investment, and public ownership have made a stunning comeback. Certain that command economies are doomed to fail but afraid that truly free markets will spin beyond their control, the political leadership in China, Russia, the Arab monarchies of the Persian Gulf and other authoritarian states have invented a new system: state capitalism. Each in their own way, they’re using markets to create wealth that can be directed toward the achievement of political goals. Governments now dominate key domestic economic sectors. The oil companies they own control three-quarters of the world’s crude oil reserves. They use state-owned companies to manipulate entire economic sectors and industries. They own enormous investment funds that have become vitally important sources of capital for Western governments and banks weakened by financial crisis. An expert on the impact of politics on market performance, Ian Bremmer illustrates the rise of state capitalism and details its long-term threat to relations among nations and the future of the global economy.

At this presentation audiences will learn about:
-The rise of state capitalism
-Why it exists and how it works
-The threat to free market capitalism

Managing Risk in an Unstable World

To navigate globalization's choppy waters, every business leader analyzes economic risk when considering overseas investments or looking at market exposure. But do you look beyond reassuring data about per-capita income or economic growth--to assess the political risk of doing business in specific countries? If not, you may get blindsided when political forces shape markets in unexpected ways--from European accession in Turkey, social unrest in India, or protectionist legislation on China. Acclaimed political analyst and entrepreneur Ian Bremmer explains that by blending political and economic risk analysis, you make savvier investment decisions--seizing valuable opportunities around the globe while avoiding danger zones.

At this presentation audiences will learn:

-How to spot political risk on the horizon and balance it against economic opportunities—and what it means for your global investments
-How to understand the opportunities, and dangers, of dramatic Chinese growth
-What are the trends around global terror, proliferation, and shifting geopolitics, and how it impacts the global markets
-What growing political risk means for the global economy, and where opportunities are

The Fat Tail: The Power of Political Knowledge for Strategic Investing

The fallout from the still-unfolding global financial crisis provides several perfect examples of "fat tail" risk, those that flow from the low-probability, high-impact events that generate upheaval more often than we think. Bremmer shares with audiences how an understanding of the political dynamics generated by the financial crisis helps us forecast market risks, why politics matter more than ever for market performance, why the world's wealthiest countries have begun to behave like emerging market states, and what all this means for investors and companies.

At this presentation audiences will learn:

-The risks that flow from low-probability, high-impact events...like the global financial crisis
-Why politics matter more for the performance of markets and for issues ranging from defaults to nationalization to regulatory reforms
-Why developed states are behaving more like emerging markets
-The shift from New York, Shanghai, and Mumbai to Washington, Beijing, and Delhi—and the risks that this trend creates

The Politics of Global Energy

Oil prices are increasingly susceptible to international politics--for both the world's supply and demand. Ian Bremmer, founder and president of the world's largest political risk consultancy, shares his views on what's in store for the politics of global energy--from spiralling Chinese and Indian growth in consumption to the dangers of future oil export from the Middle East, Russia and the Caspian, and West Africa.

At this speech audiences will learn:

-Why international politics matters to oil investors, financial institutions, and consumers alike
-How to assess the real threats to oil production, and discount the headlines that don't matter
-How a shift in global relations between the US and China will affect the global energy market

China, India and Beyond: The Opportunities and Pitfalls of Asian Growth

China bestrides the world as a colossus, and business leaders can't get enough from the promised riches of Asia. But does unprecedented growth mean that your company will benefit from it? Ian Bremmer, intellectual entrepreneur and President of Eurasia Group, explains the dangers of Asian growth for global investors seeking to build a presence in international markets; for companies seeking to sell their products there; and for the global markets more broadly.

At this speech audiences will learn:

-How to read the political and economic landscape in China, India, and beyond
-How geopolitics is creating greater risks—and opportunities—for investors in Asia

The Rise of the Different: Why the Global Order Doesn’t Work- and What We Can Do About It

Today, the American-led global order faces a fundamental challenge. It is not, however, the rise of the “rest.” It’s the rise of the “different.” As the dust settled after World War II, the United States emerged as arguably the most powerful state in history, and it set out to create a world order in its own image. The US shaped a multilateral system underpinned by globalization, serving U.S. interests but also those of anyone who accepted American preferences. The ‘rest’ who rose were like-minded, advanced industrialized democracies that bought into and buttressed the liberal international order. Today, the world has fundamentally changed. Rising emerging market nations are much poorer, they are less diplomatically experienced, and they have different priorities and political systems. Perhaps most importantly, they are inherently less stable.

What does this mean for the global order? It’s difficult enough to come to an agreement on complicated questions among five negotiators (as meetings of the United Nations Security Council have always demonstrated). But with the rise of so many other players who cannot be ignored—and aren’t ready to agree—conflict and a lack of leadership will increasingly be the norm.

At this presentation, audiences will learn about:

-The causes and consequences of a broken global order
-Geopolitical conflict at large, from Euro-crisis and US elections to Arab Spring and Asian power politics
-The best bets for US-led initiatives going forward
-The future of US-China relations
-The shifting balance between security and economics
-New investment strategies and the power of resilience
-Winners and losers in a leaderless world and what the future will hold

Books

Superpower: Three Choices for America's Role in the World

America will remain the world’s only superpower for the foreseeable future. But what sort of superpower? What role should America play in the world? What role do you want America to play?

Ian Bremmer argues that Washington’s directionless foreign policy has become prohibitively expensive and increasingly dangerous. Since the end of the Cold War, U.S. policymakers have stumbled from crisis to crisis in Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, Libya, Syria, and Ukraine without a clear strategy. Ordinary Americans too often base their foreign policy choices on allegiance or opposition to the party in power. We can no longer afford this complacency, especially now that both parties are deeply divided about America’s role in the world. The next presidential election could easily pit an interventionist Democrat against an isolationist Republican—or the exact opposite.

As 2016 rapidly approaches, Bremmer urges every American to think more deeply about what sort of country America should be and how it should use its superpower status. He explores three options:

Independent America asserts that it’s time for America to declare independence from the responsibility to solve other people’s problems. Instead, Americans should lead by example—in part, by investing in the country’s vast untapped potential.

Moneyball America acknowledges that Washington can’t meet every international challenge. With a clear-eyed assessment of U.S. strengths and limitations, we must look beyond empty arguments over exceptionalism and American values. The priorities must be to focus on opportunities and to defend U.S. interests where they’re threatened.

Indispensable America argues that only America can defend the values on which global stability increasingly depends. In today’s interdependent, hyperconnected world, a turn inward would undermine America’s own security and prosperity. We will never live in a stable world while others are denied their most basic freedoms—from China to Russia to the Middle East and beyond.

There are sound arguments for and against each of these choices, but we must choose. Washington can no longer improvise a foreign policy without a lasting commitment to a coherent strategy.

As Bremmer notes, “When I began writing this book, I didn’t know which of these three choices I would favor. It’s easy to be swayed by pundits and politicians with a story to sell or an ax to grind. My attempt to make the most honest and forceful case I could make for each of these three arguments helped me understand what I believe and why I believe it. I hope it will do the same for you. I don’t ask you to agree with me. I ask only that you choose.”

Superpower: Three Choices for America's Role in the World

Every Nation for Itself: What Happens When No One Leads the World

A world order in which no single country or durable alliance of countries can meet the challenges of global leadership. What happens when the G20 doesn’t work and the G7 is history.

If the worst threatened—a rogue nuclear state, a major health crisis, the collapse of the global financial system—where would the world look for leadership?

For the first time in seven decades, there is no single power or alliance of powers ready to take on the challenges of global leadership. A generation ago, the United States, Europe, and Japan were the world’s powerhouses, the free-market democra­cies that propelled the global economy forward. But today, they struggle just to find their footing.

Acclaimed geopolitical analyst Ian Bremmer argues that this leadership vacuum is here to stay, as power is regionalized instead of globalized. Now that so many challenges transcend borders—from the stability of the global economy and climate change to cyber-attacks and terrorism—the need for international cooperation has never been greater.

Every Nation for Itself: What Happens When No One Leads the World

The Fat Tail: The Power of Political Knowledge in an Uncertain World (co-author)

As Ian Bremmer and Preston Keat reveal in this innovative book, volatile political events such as the 2008 Georgia-Russia confrontation-and their catastrophic effects on business-happen much more frequently than investors imagine. On the curve that charts both the frequency of these events and the power of their impact, the "tail" of extreme political instability is not reassuringly thin but dangerously fat. Featuring a new Foreward that accounts for the cataclysmic effects of the 2008 financial crisis, The Fat Tail is the first book to both identify the wide range of political risks that global firms face and show investors how to effectively manage them. Written by two of the world's leading figures in political risk management, it reveals that while the world remains exceedingly risky for businesses, it is by no means incomprehensible. Political risk is unpredictable, but it is easier to analyze and manage than most people think. Applying the lessons of world history, Bremmer and Keat survey a vast range of contemporary risky situations, from stable markets like the United States or Japan, where politically driven regulation can still dramatically effect business, to more precarious places like Iran, China, Russia, Turkey, Mexico, and Nigeria, where private property is less secure and energy politics sparks constant volatility. The book sheds light on a wide array of political risks-risks that stem from great power rivalries, terrorist groups, government takeover of private property, weak leaders and internal strife, and even the "black swans" that defy prediction. But more importantly, the authors provide a wealth of unique methods, tools, and concepts to help corporations, money managers, and policy makers understand political risk, showing when and how political risk analysis works-and when it does not. "The Fat Tail delivers practical wisdom on the impact of political risk on firms of every description

The Fat Tail: The Power of Political Knowledge in an Uncertain World (co-author)

What's Next: Essays on Geopolitics That Matter (co-author)

In the last four years, the world has suffered a financial market meltdown and subsequent global recession. The eurozone crisis looms, the Middle East is in turmoil, and a shifting power balance between emerging markets and developed economies is reordering the global economy as a whole. Political and economic challenges intertwine now more than ever before, as the demands of local politics and global business grow increasingly complex and begin to conflict in new ways. Facing these new challenges, what will the future hold?

Ian Bremmer and Douglas Rediker, together with experts, analysts, and many of their colleagues from the World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council on Geopolitical Risk, analyze these global issues and provide a template to understand how they will change our world in the next few years. Focusing on the most volatile, powerful, or misunderstood developments, the authors examine, among other topics:

The risks to the International Monetary Fund
Russia’s future
The roles of emerging markets
The political roots of the eurozone crisis
Important trends and tensions in Asia-Pacific
The rise of regionalism in the wake of fracturing international governance

What's Next: Essays on Geopolitics That Matter (co-author)

What the U.S. Can Learn from China: An Open-Minded Guide to Treating Our Greatest Competitor as Our Greatest Teacher (co-author)

While America is still reeling from the 2008 financial crisis, a high unemployment rate, and a surge in government debt, China’s economy is the second largest in the world, and many predict it will surpass the United States’ by 2020. President Obama called China’s rise “a Sputnik moment”—will America seize this moment or continue to treat China as its scapegoat?

Mainstream media and the U.S. government regularly target China as a threat. Rather than viewing China’s power, influence, and contributions to the global economy in a negative light, Ann Lee asks, What can America learn from its competition?

Why did China recover so quickly after the global economic meltdown? What accounts for China’s extraordinary growth, despite one of the highest corporate tax rates in the world? How does the Chinese political system avoid partisan rancor but achieve genuine public accountability? From education to governance to foreign aid, Lee details the policies and practices that have made China a global power and then isolates the ways the United States can use China’s enduring principles to foster much-needed change at home.

This is no whitewash. Lee is fully aware of China’s shortcomings, particularly in the area of human rights. She has relatives who suffered during the Cultural Revolution. But by overemphasizing our differences with China, the United States stands to miss a vital opportunity. Filled with sharp insights and thorough research, What the U.S. Can Learn from China is Lee’s rallying cry for a new approach at a time when learning from one another is the key to surviving and thriving.

Winner of the Gold IPPY award in the category of current events.

What the U.S. Can Learn from China: An Open-Minded Guide to Treating Our Greatest Competitor as Our Greatest Teacher (co-author)

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